Media

OTTAWA, March 23, 2011  —  A new report authored by University of Ottawa professor Robert McLeman warns that inaction on climate change raises the risk of large population displacement and migration with the potential to create political instability and conflict in vulnerable regions of the world.

The report, Climate Change, Migration and Critical International Security Considerations, is published by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) as part of its Migration Research Series. Based on findings from a wide-ranging study of scientific reporting on actual past and present climate-related migrations around the world, it warns that in the absence of concerted action to control greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate change, large-scale human displacement and migration are inevitable within the next twenty years.

The report explains that climate events and extremes, like hurricanes, droughts and floods, can trigger large scale movements of distress migration and undermine the stability of fragile states. While long-distance international migration movements sometimes occur, most climate-related migration takes place within countries or regions. This places increased stress on governments and institutions, especially in developing regions, and can raise the risk of potential conflict.

Citing examples such as Hurricane Katrina, the Pakistani floods and the West African droughts, the report outlines a variety of ways governments can avoid worst-case outcomes.

Professor McLeman states, “We see in the media many alarmist reports warning of hundreds of millions of environmental migrants on the way, and of climate change being a ‘threat multiplier’ that will cause global conflict. While such things might come to pass, they are nothing more than possibilities. What’s important right now is to understand how climate, migration and security are interconnected, and to realize we still have the ability to determine what the future outcomes will be.”

His report observes that the first migration clearly attributable to human-induced climate change will likely be to the Arctic, for economic reasons, as retreating snow and ice open new opportunities for oil and mineral exploration and trans-Arctic shipping.

More pressing are the longer term concerns of increasingly frequent drought and storm events, which have displaced millions of people in the past. Professor McLeman emphasizes, “Governments need to understand that there will be consequences. With foresight, cooperation and planning, the negative consequences can be minimized, but this is not something that will go away on its own.”

The launch of the report coincides with the 2011 Canadian Metropolis Conference on migration policy in Vancouver, March 23-26, 2011, where Professor McLeman will give a plenary talk on the implications of climate change for Canadian migration policy.

The full report is available free on the IOM website.