Generative state power and AI statecraft

What happens to international politics if artificial intelligence changes not simply the capabilities states possess, but the processes through which new capabilities are generated? This seminar develops the concept of generative state power: the capacity of states and the technological systems around them to use AI to generate, combine, adapt and renew strategically relevant capabilities across domains. Particular attention will be paid to recursive self-improvement (RSI): the emerging process through which AI systems increasingly contribute to the research and engineering that produces more capable successor systems, potentially creating a self-reinforcing acceleration in AI development and, in turn, in the production of scientific, economic, military and other strategic capabilities. The seminar will consider how these dynamics could affect strategic competition, diplomacy and the international balance of power, and what they may mean for middle powers such as Canada as they navigate technological dependence, institutional adaptation and strategic autonomy.