Manitoba’s wildfires
“Manitoba’s devastating wildfires were entirely predictable,” says Hossein Bonakdari, Associate professor, in Civil engineering at uOttawa who tapped into multi-source satellite and climate data to track changes in key environmental indicators in the Canadian province, to discover that a convergence of factors likely triggered early-season fuel stress.
Conditions were in place for weeks, making Manitoba’s forests much more flammable even in the absence of extreme drought or temperature spikes. That’s why being able to detect these warning signs in real time has never been more important.
“Individually, these anomalies may have seemed modest but, together, they created the perfect storm of a preconditioned landscape where fire spread rapidly and unpredictably,” says the climate change and environmental engineer, whose research focuses on extreme weather phenomenon across the globe. “This is a textbook case of synergistic climate-anomaly interaction, a phenomenon that is becoming increasingly common as climate change drives subtle but simultaneous shifts in snowpack, soil moisture, and vegetation health.”
By analyzing satellite-driven anomaly detection frameworks and statistical analyses, Bonakdari discovered significant anomalies in precipitation and snow and vegetation cover, pointing to a dry and exposed landscape lacking the usual spring recovery before the first flames ignited. The convergence of the following factors was triggering:
- Reduced vegetative greenness
- Early snowmelt and diminished snow retention
- Localized soil drying
- Low spring rainfall
“The snow cover anomaly was particularly revealing,” explains Bonakdari, whose research includes utilizing AI models to predict weather patterns.
“A massive loss of spring snowpack meant that soil and vegetation were exposed much earlier than usual, accelerating surface drying. Without insulating snow, the ground warmed faster, vegetation dried out sooner, and fire ignition conditions arrived weeks ahead of schedule. This early exposure acted as a silent amplifier—subtly setting the stage for extreme fire behavior long before the first flame appeared.”
Media may directly contact Professor Bonakdari with interview requests (in English and French):
[email protected]
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